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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

"Gary ain't come in yet."

As the fate of a nailbiter Indiana primary -- and possibly the course of the Democratic race -- hung on his city, Gary Mayor Rudy Clay said just now that it might take a while yet to finish counting the vote in Lake County, which includes Gary, and said tonight his city had turned out so overwhelmingly for Barack Obama that it might just be enough to close the gap with Hillary Rodham Clinton.

"Let me tell you, when all the votes are counted, when Gary comes in, I think you're looking at something for the world to see," Clay, an Obama supporter, said in a telephone interview from Obama's Gary headquarters. "I don't know what the numbers are yet, but Gary has absolutely produced in large numbers for Obama here." - Washington Post, May 6, 2008
This bit is interesting: "In 2004, 188,000 voters turned out in Lake County, with 61 percent voting for John Kerry."

So right now the NYT has it this way with 92% reporting:

Clinton 588,823 50.9%
Obama 568,156 49.1%

So 10,334 votes would swing it Obama's way. Let's assume everything remaining besides Lake County splits 50/50, and further assume 100,000 of the 2004 voters voted in today's Democratic primary in Lake County (a very conservative assumption, it seems to me). Obama would need a margin of just over 10% to gain his needed 10,334 votes. So, on these assumptions, if Obama gets 56% of the vote in Lake County, he wins Indiana. Drudge quotes Mayor Clay saying "We're seeing numbers as high as 85 to 90 percent."

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posted at 9:10 PM

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