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“I know where I'm headed.”
ROGER THORNHILL



Thursday, December 15, 2005

Why big fierce animals are rare

Airbus's bet on the gigantic A380 always seemed like a rather grand bet. It was always easy to think of problems: too big/heavy, too hard to evacuate quickly, sensible for only a fraction of all routes, etc. But one kind of imagined that some people at Airbus knew what they were doing, and it seemed that their giant plane might manage to establish itself before Boeing could get a competing vision into phase with carrier order cycles. Now the cast die seems to be coming to rest for Airbus and the bet is looking ill-conceived at best, reckless at worst. [LINK] When your customers operate with some of the thinnest margins seen in any industry, shouldn't you really try to offer them the most fuel-efficient planes? That seems more important than offering the biggest planes.

In retrospect, it isn't surprising that Airbus is faltering. Hard to think that the combination of state industries from four EU countries, with manufacturing commitments in each of them, could be an efficient or nimble competitor. A little competition seems to have been just what Boeing needed to kick itself into another gear. And I'm sure it doesn't hurt that the dollar is so low relative to a bunch of other currencies. (Been to Canada lately? Yikes!)

Someone should write a history of quests to build the biggest whatever. They don't usually end well.

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