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Monday, February 04, 2008

"That will almost certainly prove fatal"

With Mr Obama closing in on her steadily, it is essential for Mrs Clinton to defeat him decisively on Super Tuesday. Anything less than a crushing victory will allow the race to continue throughout February and well into March, and that will almost certainly prove fatal. After Super Tuesday, the race will shift back towards the sort of state-by-state retail politics that characterised the early primaries, allowing Mr Obama to play to his ability to fire up the crowds at huge rallies that resemble rock-concerts more than conventional politics. The buzz that surrounds him will grow, neutralising Mrs Clinton's greatest advantage, which is the fact that people feel they know a lot more about her.

And if John McCain is entrenched tomorrow as the Republican nominee (which looks probable), that can only help Mr Obama. As a less polarising figure than Mrs Clinton, Mr Obama will be perceived as a better choice to take on the centrist Mr McCain, matching his ability to appeal to the all-important independent voter. Mrs Clinton would be seen to have thrown away an apparently unassailable lead, thanks to running a poor and sometimes spiteful campaign, and for allowing ambiguity about the role of Bill Clinton in a future Clinton White House to creep into the debate. This will make her look like damaged goods.

What, though, will constitute a decisive victory? There is a little over 2,000 delegates at stake for the Democrats on Super Tuesday (a fraction more than half of the total), and winning a bare majority will clearly not be enough for Mrs Clinton. Should she win more than 1,300 to Mr Obama’s 700, she will probably be in the clear. Anything between those two extremes will be the subject of a protracted “spin” operation by the rival camps. - The Economist, February 4, 2008
Will she land a knockout punch while she's falling back on her heels? I don't think so.

By the way, I count 21 districts in California with an odd number of delegates. In a close two-person race, everything else gets split pretty much down the middle. And the 21 odd delegates probably won't all go one way or the other, so the whole state looks like a bit of a wash, delegate-wise.

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posted at 4:51 PM

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

"There is a little over 2000 delegates"? Really?

February 05, 2008 12:49 AM  

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